The AI party is just getting started: Why it’s 1995, not 1999

1995 Reimagined: Why This Isn’t an AI Bubble, but the Start of a Golden Age?

In the current market atmosphere, many investors are fearful of high valuations in tech stocks, worrying about a repeat of the 2000 Dot-com bubble. However, top analyst Dan Ives proposed a powerful perspective in a recent interview: This is not 1999 (the eve of a bubble burst), but 1995 (the dawn of a major transformation).

The Truth Behind the Data: The 3% Starting Point Despite AI sounding ubiquitous, Ives points out that currently, only 3% of U.S. enterprises have truly integrated AI into their workflows. This means a staggering 97% of the market remains untapped territory.

The Timeline of the Party He used a vivid metaphor: If this tech bull market were a grand party starting at 9 PM and ending at 4 AM, it is currently only 10:30 PM. The main course hasn’t even been served yet, and the tech industry has at least two more years of strong growth momentum.

Core Investment Philosophy: Put Down the Spreadsheets, “Bet on the Leaders”

Ives believes that traditional financial models often fail when facing a “generational technology transition.” If you only focus on current financial reports and P/E ratios, you might miss out on every tech giant of the past twenty years because they seemed “too expensive.”

Vision Over Data: Investors should build a 3-to-5-year long-term thesis rather than being swayed by short-term quarterly fluctuations.

Bet on the CEO: The core of his stock-picking logic lies in “people.” He believes that the personal traits of leaders like Jensen Huang or Elon Musk are a company’s greatest assets.

Deep Dive: Who is Leading This Revolution?

• Nvidia: The “Arms Dealer” Monopolizing the Future In Ives’ eyes, Nvidia is not just a company; it is the sole engine of the entire AI revolution. Technical Dominance: While competitors try to close the gap, Nvidia leads by 4 to 5 years in terms of ecosystem and technical accumulation. Extreme Demand: Based on his supply chain field research, demand for Nvidia chips is 12 times the supply. This isn’t just growth—it is a near-monopoly on future infrastructure.

• Tesla: The Leap from EVs to Robotics For Tesla, Ives emphasizes the word “transformation.” Wartime CEO: He describes Musk as once again displaying a strong fighting spirit, shifting the company’s focus from pure auto manufacturing to Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotics. The Future Story: Over the next 12 to 18 months, Tesla’s value will be defined by its breakthroughs in the AI field, not just delivery numbers.

• Microsoft: A Hall-of-Fame Level Pivot Satya Nadella is called the “strongest CEO today” by Ives because of his incredible foresight. The OpenAI Masterstroke: Nadella decisively bet on OpenAI before AI became mainstream, allowing Microsoft to flip from a legacy software provider to a leader in the AI era overnight. Cultural Transformation: Nadella successfully broke through Microsoft’s internal bureaucratic deadlock; such a restructuring of corporate culture is extremely rare.

• The “Heart and Lungs” of the Industry: TSMC and Apple Beyond the big three, Ives highlights two other key pillars: TSMC: He describes it as the “heart and lungs” of the global tech industry. No matter who wins the AI race, they must ultimately rely on TSMC’s manufacturing capabilities. While geopolitical risks exist, its status is irreplaceable. Apple: Apple’s moat lies in its massive global user base. With the launch of AI app stores and services, Apple will become the world’s largest entry point for AI monetization.

The Power of Retail: Market Rules are Changing

A significant observation in this interview is the “maturity of retail investors.” Ives found that in stocks like Nvidia or Tesla, retail investors are often more forward-looking than institutional ones. When institutions sell out of panic, retail investors demonstrate a strong will to hold. Today’s individual investors have the same information seat as institutions and are no longer mere bystanders in the market.

Future Layout: Identity Verification and Indexed Investing Ives also shared his personal forward-looking projects:

Digital Identity Verification: As AI-generated content becomes indistinguishable from reality, he is involved with companies focused on iris scanning technology (related to Worldcoin) to solve the future “hard requirement” of human authenticity verification.

Precisely Picking Winners: The ETFs he promotes are not blind buys; they are a curated selection of about 30 software and hardware companies that truly possess a moat in the “AI arms race.”

Conclusion: Staying Clear-Headed Amidst the Noise

Dan Ives’ final advice is clear: Understand your risk profile and build your own investment logic. The market will never lack noise, criticism, or macroeconomic concerns, but if you believe AI is a transformation on par with the Industrial Revolution, then now is the most critical period for positioning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFlxcF-9NmU